Erdogan's defeat in the presidential elections in Turkey will lead to an imbalance of geopolitical forces in the Black Sea and Middle East regions....
The day before, news came about the deterioration of the health of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. During a major election interview, he suddenly became ill - communication with the press had to be interrupted. After that, rumors appeared that Erdogan could survive the microstroke, which, of course, was refuted by his administration.
Of course, because such a fact is likely to cost him a loss in the elections to be held on May 14. For Russia, Erdogan's departure from the political arena carries serious risks: despite all the contradictions, he took into account Russia's position in his policy, to some extent balancing the ardent anti-Russian actions of other major players in the Black Sea and Middle East regions.
Details - in the material of the correspondent of The Moscow Post.
In the West, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is called the "Sultan." The leader of Turkey is one of the few representatives of major powers that have retained geopolitical subjectivity and fit well into the model of a multipolar world promoted by the Russian leadership.
This is the difference between the current Turkey from those countries that previously could not be called hostile to the Russian Federation - the same Germany. However, Germany, under Merkel, under Scholz, was ready to break off many years of relations with Moscow in peak of its own national interests.
Now in Berlin they credit themselves with the refusal of Russian energy resources - most of the supplies were replaced from other sources. Only the German layman is rarely reminded that the same LNG is now purchased four times more expensive than previously Russian gas, which will inevitably lead to the degradation of German industry and impoverishment of the population.
Nevertheless, Germany, like many other Western countries, easily shoots itself in the foot, just to find itself in the geopolitical trend set by the United States and wider - Western Anglo-Saxon elites. Only Hungary cannot be included in this cohort, where Prime Minister Viktor Orban also refuses to fully implement the anti-Russian policy, because this negatively affects Hungary itself.
Against this background, Erdogan acts more than pragmatically. The affectionate child sucks at two queens, and the Turkish president managed to extract the maximum benefits from the Ukrainian crisis, while not sliding into confrontation with Russia. Today, most of the "parallel imports" to the Russian Federation are going through Turkey. Turkey has not abandoned trade relations, nor cooperation in the field of nuclear energy, nor mediation efforts to overcome disagreements between the Russian Federation and the Western camp.
However, soon elections, in which Erdogan clearly will not be able to win with a crushing score. If at all it will be possible to win. According to the latest polls, he can count on 43.2% of the popular vote, while his main opponent, Chairman of the Republican People's Party of the CHP Kemal Kylychdaroglu - 53.4%. In recent weeks before the elections, this ratio may have changed in favor of Erdogan, but health problems call into question whether he will be able to take part in the elections at all.
Erdogan's health is now the central topic of the opposition agenda in Turkey. The president, who is weak in health, simply will not be able to implement national policy, or even not sit until the end of the cadence. At the same time, Turkey has enough complaints against Erdogan. The earthquake in Turkey also had a great negative impact - the opposition is trying to accuse Erdogan of insufficient measures to support the victims and restore the destroyed cities.
The Turkish president became ill during the interview. Video: YouTube channel The Moscow Post
All this paints sad prospects for him in the upcoming vote. At the same time, his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu looks much more preferable for Turkey's Western allies, for whom Erdogan has become something of a Busoter, an troublemaker in the North Atlantic Alliance.
They cannot forget Erdogan's Turkey and the purchase of Russian air defense systems by S-400, the work of which the Turks could observe in the immediate vicinity of their borders throughout the Syrian conflict. In addition, in recent months, the Erdogan administration has made a very demarche against the Western establishment, when it decided to restore diplomatic relations with Syria, when it became clear that the Assad regime would not go anywhere - it would have to work and live side by side.
Another stumbling block is Sweden's entry into NATO, which is being sabotaged by Erdogan's administration. What a striking contrast with the same Poles, Germans, who are ready to take everything that comes from the American White House under the visor. There is clearly a consensus there that Erdogan is pursuing too independent a policy.
In 2016, we recall that Erdogan was completely tried to be removed through an armed coup. Interestingly, its key driving force was the officers of the Air Force, the vast majority of whom fly on Western military aircraft, which means that they underwent internships and training in Western countries.
What has not been achieved as a result of the military coup will be achieved at the expense of the health problems of the Turkish president? Photo: https://islam.ru/content/analitics/48021
There is still a version that the coup attempt was carried out with the support of the CIA and MI-6. But then it did not work out to "dump" the Turkish Sultan. Recall also that Russian President Vladimir Putin was one of the first world leaders, if not the first, who called Erdogan and expressed his support for him in connection with an attempt to forcibly change power. Now the United States is acting by other methods - by promoting the already well-known "democratic" narratives.
However, rumors of a dramatic deterioration in Erdogan's condition can be greatly exaggerated. Today he should take part in loading fuel at the Akkuyu NPP together with the Russian side, which will be represented by Russian President Vladimir Putin via video link. It is unlikely that Erdogan could have taken part in the event after surviving a stroke. However, even in full health, winning the elections will not be easy - and Russia must definitely take into account the geopolitical risks associated with this.
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