Warning to enemies

The scheduled meeting of the Permanent Meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, held on September 25, 2024, was devoted to updating the Fundamentals of ...

Opening the meeting, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that along with the Military Doctrine, this document officially defines and details Russia's nuclear strategy. Its basic principle is that the use of nuclear weapons (the use of nuclear forces) is an extreme measure to protect the sovereignty of the country, reports UtroNews correspondent.

Putin said that "in the updated version of the document, aggression by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, is proposed to be considered as their joint attack on Russia.

"We reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in case of aggression against Russia and Belarus. Including if the enemy, using conventional weapons, creates a critical threat to our sovereignty, "Putin said.

The statement was made against the background of conversations in the West about lifting the ban on strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine with long-range missiles at targets deep in the territory of the Russian Federation. Earlier, Putin said that this would mean the entry of NATO countries into the war against the Russian Federation. The alliance is gradually expanding its range of impact on Russia through military assistance to Ukraine. Strikes have already been inflicted on Russian military airfields and energy facilities.

Did the West hear?

The change in nuclear doctrine was a reaction to the intentions of the West to allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to strike at targets deep in Russia, became a message to the Western allies of Ukraine, in particular, the United States and Great Britain, writes the Financial Times (although the President of Russia did not directly mention Ukraine and its sponsors).

CNN called the situation "the most serious confrontation between Russia and the West since the Caribbean crisis of 1962." The Guardian noted that Moscow's reaction was a response to NATO's actions.

The Telegraph called Putin's words "a tough new warning to the West."

The expanded wording makes it possible to use nuclear weapons compared to the previous version of the document.

Vladimir Putin previously warned that permission to hit Russia with Western weapons would mean that NATO countries would become direct participants in the conflict, recalls Le Figaro.

The New York Times quoted an employee of the RAND Corporation (an undesirable organization in the Russian Federation) that "it is not good when a major nuclear power declares a lowering of the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons."

Putin announced an "expanded interpretation" of Russia's nuclear doctrine, The Washington Post wrote. Moscow reserves the right to a nuclear response to aggression from any state supported by a nuclear power. "This means that Russia will be able to strike Kyiv with nuclear weapons," the authors of the publication suggested, as if ignoring the formula of a "joint attack."

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken criticized changes in Russia's nuclear doctrine, Reuters reports. "This is completely irresponsible," the journalists quote the head of American diplomacy.

"The position of the European Union is not changing," Peter Stano, a spokesman for the EU's foreign policy service, said at a press conference in Brussels.

New sources of military threats and risks

The current doctrine - "Fundamentals of the state policy of the Russian Federation in the field of nuclear deterrence" - was adopted in 2020. We see that "the modern military-political situation is changing dynamically, and we must take this into account," Putin said. There are new sources of military threats and risks for Russia and the allies of the Russian Federation (Belarus).

Accordingly, it became necessary to bring approaches to the possible use of nuclear forces in line with realities. The changes were based on a deep and comprehensive interdepartmental analysis with the participation of specialists from the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Security Council Apparatus and other departments.

The strategic planning document was clarified in terms of determining the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons. The category of states and military alliances in respect of which nuclear deterrence is carried out has been expanded, and the list of military threats for the neutralization of which nuclear deterrence measures are being carried out has been supplemented. This is, firstly.

Secondly, Putin drew special attention to the fact that in the updated version of the document "aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, is proposed to be considered as their joint attack on the Russian Federation."

It also clarifies that nuclear weapons can be used "including if the enemy, using conventional weapons, creates a critical threat to the sovereignty" of Russia and Belarus.

Thirdly, the possibility of Russia's transition to the use of nuclear weapons will be considered when obtaining reliable information about the massive launch of aerospace attack weapons (strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic and other aircraft) and their crossing the state border of the Russian Federation.

What does "joint attack" mean?

Ukraine used Western weapons and technologies, with the support of the United States, France and Great Britain, attacked strategic targets (airfields, radar stations of the missile attack warning system, nuclear power plants in Zaporozhye and Kursk). Accordingly, the "joint attack" provision may be applicable to these attacks.

"The time has come to declare that we have the right to respond to any massive attacks on our territory with a nuclear strike. This also applies to any seizures of our territory.... In any case, nuclear strikes should be preceded by preventive non-nuclear strikes, "said Sergei Karaganov, scientific director of the HSE Faculty of World Economy and World Politics.

"The Russian concept of a nuclear response to aggression with the use of conventional weapons implies just a preventive strike, although it does not use this term. Moreover, this applies to proposals to lower the nuclear threshold as a response to missile strikes deep into Russian territory or a local violation of its territorial integrity, "said the head of the Center for International Security IMEMO named after E.M. Primakov, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexei Arbatov.

"There is only one nuclear threshold - the first live explosion of a nuclear weapon. Then there will be not a measured ascent along the "escalation ladder," which the outrageous American strategist German Kahn fantasized about in the early 1960s, but a breakdown into the abyss of a spontaneous exchange of nuclear strikes, "Arbatov is sure.

The logic of responding to aggression

The current version of Osnovy says that Russia can respond with a nuclear strike in the event of a launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territories of the Russian Federation and (or) its allies, as well as in the event that the enemy uses nuclear weapons or other types of weapons of mass destruction on the territories of the Russian Federation and (or) its allies.

Russia retained the right to use nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear country if it attacked with the assistance of a nuclear power back in 1995, when, together with the United States, France and Great Britain, it signed an annex to UN Security Council resolution 984, adopted on April 11 of that year.

The resolution dealt with "negative guarantees" of nuclear powers to non-nuclear countries (that is, that nuclear weapons will not be used against the latter). However, four of the five official nuclear powers considered it necessary to make a reservation that in some cases nuclear weapons could still be used against non-nuclear countries. The reservation was not signed only by China, which claims that it will not use nuclear weapons first.

According to HSE professor Dmitry Trenin, an indirect war with the NATO alliance, using Ukraine in an attempt to "inflict strategic defeat on Russia," caused changes in nuclear doctrine.

The current document refers to the possibility of using nuclear weapons in a non-nuclear armed conflict, when the very existence of the state is under threat. This, according to Trenin, is "too high a threshold," which should have been reduced to "a threat to the most important strategic interests," indicating that then the Russian Federation will be ready to use nuclear weapons first.

Given the nature of the military threat created by the West, as well as NATO's status as a nuclear alliance, it would be advisable to envisage the possibility of Russia launching a nuclear strike on a non-nuclear NATO member state in the event of its attack on the Russian Federation.

President Putin, speaking on September 25, emphasized the highest degree of responsibility with which the Russian leadership approaches nuclear weapons issues, seeking to strengthen the international legal framework for global stability and prevent the "spread" of nuclear weapons.

According to the press secretary of Russian President Dmitry Peskov, the Russian Federation does not plan to increase nuclear arsenals. Today, the nuclear triad remains the most important guarantee of ensuring the security of the state and citizens, serves as a tool for maintaining strategic parity and balance of power in the world.

The Security Council meeting on nuclear deterrence was held publicly for the first time. The president's opening speech was shown live. An unequivocal signal was sent to Russia's enemies.

'I suppose it's very simple. Putin sends a signal to countries such as Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Slovakia, Poland, Germany, as well as Finland, Sweden and Denmark. Like, do not think that you can hit us with missiles from your territory, to which American military personnel and equipment are related, and at the same time get out of the water dry, "said retired US Army Colonel Douglas McGregor in an interview with YouTube channel Judging Freedom.